Patriots vs Titans — Week 9, 2024
The Patriots took over trailing 17-10 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 17, Titans 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.6% for Patriots. Our model starts at 13.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 9-K.Boutte to NE 37 for 7 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 40 for 3 yards (98-J.Simmons; 50-J.Gibbens).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 43 for 3 yards (44-M.Brown).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 84-K.Bourne.
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 3-D.Douglas.
- (2:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to TEN 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 13 for 6 yards (27-M.Dial). FUMBLES (27-M.Dial), and recovers at TEN 14.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.97 pts |
| Spike it | -1.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.