Bills vs Patriots — Week 18, 2024
The Bills took over trailing 20-16 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Bills 16, Patriots 23. Patriots won 23-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 15, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.8% for Bills. Our model starts at 24.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 22-R.Davis up the middle to BUF 18 for 3 yards (95-D.Ekuale; 53-C.Elliss).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass incomplete short left to 22-R.Davis (97-T.Leo).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass incomplete short right to 1-C.Samuel (24-D.Pettus).
- (3:26) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-A.Erickson ran ob at BUF 45 for 26 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.09 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.06 pts |
| Deep post | -0.08 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.21 pts |
| Play action | -0.29 pts |
| QB keep | -0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Outside run | -1.62 pts |
| Inside run | -2.03 pts |
| Spike it | -2.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.