Packers vs Bears — Week 11, 2024
The Packers took over trailing 19-14 with 4:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 20, Bears 19. Packers won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 22, 4:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 20.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right guard to GB 26 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 91-Ch.Williams).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson to CHI 14 for 60 yards (6-K.Gordon) [99-G.Dexter]. CHI-22-E.Hicks was injured during the play. Chicago challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 13 yards (31-K.Byard). Green Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (3:02) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-J.Jacobs rushes left guard. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Deep post | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Spike it | -1.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.