Bears vs Lions — Week 13, 2024
The Bears took over trailing 23-20 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 1, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Bears 20, Lions 23. Lions won 23-20 — the drive time expired.
Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 1, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.7% for Bears. Our model starts at 30.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen to CHI 7 for 6 yards (51-B.Niemann). PENALTY on CHI-13-K.Allen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 3 yards, enforced at CHI 7.
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 15-R.Odunze.
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 29 for 25 yards (30-K.Dorsey). DET-99-Z.Smith was injured during the play.
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 24 for -5 yards (69-A.Muhammad).
- (2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 38 for 14 yards (29-K.Vildor). ** Injury Update: DET-99-Z.Smith has returned to the game.
- (2:25) 4-D.Swift up the middle to 50 for 12 yards (31-K.Joseph). CHI-65-C.Shelton was injured during the play.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 43 for -7 yards (sack split by 47-E.Turner and 99-Z.Smith).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles up the middle to DET 44 for 13 yards (32-B.Branch). DET-99-Z.Smith was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: CHI-65-C.Shelton has returned to the game.
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Allen (69-A.Muhammad).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore [98-D.Reader].
- (:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at DET 41 for -6 yards (99-Z.Smith).
- (:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 15-R.Odunze.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.31 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-4.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.32 pts |
| Quick out | -1.43 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.65 pts |
| QB keep | -1.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.04 pts |
| Outside run | -2.27 pts |
| Inside run | -2.31 pts |
| Curl route | -2.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.64 pts |
| Play action | -3.10 pts |
| Deep post | -3.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.