Titans vs Jaguars — Week 17, 2024
The Titans took over trailing 20-13 with 1:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Titans 13, Jaguars 20. Jaguars won 20-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 1:29 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.5% for Titans. Our model starts at 5.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to TEN 38 for 12 yards (42-A.Wingard; 30-M.Brown).
- (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 38 for 24 yards (30-M.Brown).
- (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at JAX 31 for 7 yards (22-J.Jones).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo.
- (:31) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Boyd (23-F.Oluokun).
- (:24) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (91-A.Armstead).
- (:20) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep middle to 81-J.Whyle.
- (:14) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (26-A.Johnson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.87 pts |
| Curl route | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Spike it | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.