Panthers vs Chiefs — Week 12, 2024
The Panthers took over trailing 27-19 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at the Chiefs 49, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 27, Chiefs 30. Chiefs won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Near midfield, 3:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.1% for Panthers. Our model starts at 12.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (98-T.Wharton).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 17-X.Legette.
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-X.Legette to KC 42 for 5 yards (56-G.Karlaftis; 21-J.Hicks).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to KC 29 for 13 yards (27-C.Conner).
- (1:49) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 30-C.Hubbard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Play action | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.