Panthers vs Eagles — Week 14, 2024
The Panthers took over trailing 22-16 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 16, Eagles 22. Eagles won 22-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 3, 2:58 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.5% for Panthers. Our model starts at 11.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 17-X.Legette. ** Injury Update: PHI-8-C.Gardner-Johnson has returned to the game.
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end to CAR 4 for 1 yard. 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 17-X.Legette [93-M.Williams]. PENALTY on CAR-9-B.Young, Illegal Forward Pass, 2 yards, enforced at CAR 4.
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 17-X.Legette to CAR 33 for 31 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (2:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard pushed ob at CAR 39 for 6 yards (2-D.Slay).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-D.Thompkins to CAR 46 for 7 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right end to CAR 49 for 3 yards (58-J.Hunt).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 17-X.Legette (2-D.Slay).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 17-X.Legette.
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to PHI 38 for 13 yards (36-T.McCollum) [3-N.Smith].
- (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at PHI 32 for 6 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
- (:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 17-X.Legette.
- (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right [97-M.Ojomo].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.59 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| QB keep | -0.81 pts |
| Deep post | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -0.82 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.84 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.04 pts |
| Curl route | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.20 pts |
| Play action | -1.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.38 pts |
| Inside run | -1.42 pts |
| Outside run | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.