Ravens vs Chiefs — Week 1, 2024
The Ravens took over trailing 27-20 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 20, Chiefs 27. Chiefs won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 13, 1:50 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 5.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely pushed ob at BAL 21 for 8 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at BAL 30 for 9 yards (27-C.Conner).
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 7-R.Bateman.
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely pushed ob at BAL 38 for 8 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to BAL 41 for 3 yards (32-N.Bolton). KC-54-L.Chenal was injured during the play.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 43-J.Hill to BAL 48 for 7 yards (32-N.Bolton).
- (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely pushed ob at KC 48 for 4 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to KC 10 for 38 yards (6-B.Cook).
- (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 80-I.Likely. BAL-80-I.Likely was injured during the play.
- (:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers. ** Injury Update: KC-54-L.Chenal has returned to the game.
- (:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 80-I.Likely (32-N.Bolton). ** Injury Update: BAL-80-I.Likely has returned to the game.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.26 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.26 pts |
| Curl route | +0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.25 pts |
| Play action | -0.27 pts |
| QB keep | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Quick out | -0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Spike it | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Outside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.