Bengals vs Ravens — Week 10, 2024
The Bengals took over trailing 35-28 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 34, Ravens 35. Ravens won 35-34 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.6% for Bengals. Our model starts at 7.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki [99-O.Oweh].
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Chase.
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep middle to 80-A.Iosivas.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas to CIN 40 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey) [98-T.Jones]. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Gesicki (29-A.Washington).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at BAL 24 for 21 yards (32-M.Williams). PENALTY on BAL-96-B.Washington, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at BAL 24.
- (:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Burton.
- (:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at BAL 5 for 2 yards (44-M.Humphrey) [99-O.Oweh].
- (:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-J.Burrow pass to 87-T.Hudson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.97 pts |
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.30 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Spike it | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.