Jaguars vs Titans — Week 17, 2024
The Jaguars took over leading 20-13 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 20, Titans 13. Jaguars won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 31, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.6% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 96.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to JAX 34 for 3 yards (98-J.Simmons).
- (1:51) 1-T.Etienne right tackle to JAX 37 for 3 yards (13-C.Awuzie).
- (1:47) 1-T.Etienne left tackle to JAX 39 for 2 yards (98-J.Simmons).
- (1:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 26 for 9 yards (81-J.Deguara).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| Quick out | -1.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.54 pts |
| QB keep | -1.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -2.89 pts |
| Curl route | -3.35 pts |
| End-around | -5.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.34 pts |
| Deep post | -9.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.