Cowboys vs Commanders — Week 12, 2024
The Cowboys took over leading 27-20 with 1:39 left, 1st & 10 at the Commanders 49, 1 timeout in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 34, Commanders 26. Cowboys won 34-26 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.7% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 97.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush right end to DAL 49 for -2 yards (20-Q.Martin).
- (1:34) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 43 for -6 yards (94-D.Payne).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle right tackle to 50 for 7 yards (11-J.Chinn; 24-M.Davis).
- (:40) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to WAS 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.89 pts |
| Quick out | -1.24 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.67 pts |
| QB keep | -1.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Play action | -3.07 pts |
| Curl route | -3.54 pts |
| End-around | -5.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.54 pts |
| Deep post | -9.39 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.