Colts vs Titans — Week 16, 2024
The Colts took over leading 38-30 with 2:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 38, Titans 30. Colts won 38-30 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 32, 2:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 96.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 34 for 2 yards (51-C.Gray).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to IND 34 for no gain (69-S.Joseph).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 11-M.Pittman ran ob at IND 44 for 10 yards.
- (1:55) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 46 for 2 yards (69-S.Joseph; 29-J.Brownlee).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end to TEN 45 for 9 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
- (1:45) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to TEN 44 for 1 yard (93-T.Sweat; 44-M.Brown).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to TEN 41 for 3 yards (35-D.Worley; 98-J.Simmons).
- (:56) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to TEN 40 for 1 yard (98-J.Simmons; 69-S.Joseph).
- (:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.83 pts |
| Quick out | -1.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -3.02 pts |
| Curl route | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.48 pts |
| Deep post | -9.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.