Cowboys vs Giants — Week 13, 2024
The Cowboys took over leading 27-20 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 27, Giants 20. Cowboys won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.7% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 95.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 83-J.Brooks to DAL 35 for no gain (21-A.Jackson).
- (2:08) 23-R.Dowdle right tackle to DAL 38 for 3 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux; 95-J.Riley).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 3-B.Cooks to DAL 41 for 3 yards (31-T.Nubin).
- (1:15) 10-C.Rush kneels to DAL 39 for -2 yards.
- (:38) 10-C.Rush kneels to DAL 38 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.94 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.73 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.90 pts |
| Curl route | -3.27 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.34 pts |
| Deep post | -9.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.