Packers vs Colts — Week 2, 2024
The Packers took over leading 16-10 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at the Colts 43, 1 timeout in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Packers 16, Colts 10. Packers won 16-10 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Colts territory, 1:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.3% for Packers. Our model starts at 96.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 40 for 3 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo, 20-N.Cross).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to IND 39 for 1 yard (94-T.Lewis, 40-J.Jones).
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to IND 38 for 1 yard (20-N.Cross, 90-G.Stewart).
- (:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to IND 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.78 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.78 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.55 pts |
| QB keep | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| Play action | -2.92 pts |
| Curl route | -3.38 pts |
| End-around | -5.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.37 pts |
| Deep post | -9.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.