Steelers vs Broncos — Week 2, 2024
The Steelers took over leading 13-6 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 13, Broncos 6. Steelers won 13-6 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 96.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) 22-N.Harris right guard to PIT 32 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones; 52-J.Elliss).
- (1:51) 22-N.Harris right tackle to PIT 36 for 4 yards (99-Z.Allen; 0-J.Cooper).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields right end to PIT 36 for no gain (6-P.Locke).
- (:18) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 9 yards (15-B.Skowronek).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.84 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.53 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -2.89 pts |
| Curl route | -3.34 pts |
| End-around | -5.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.33 pts |
| Deep post | -9.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.