Vikings vs Packers — Week 17, 2024
The Vikings took over leading 27-25 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Packers 25. Vikings won 27-25 — the drive time expired.
Vikings ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 30, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 75.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 30-C.Ham to MIN 43 for 13 yards (20-J.Bullard).
- (2:00) 27-C.Akers left end to MIN 42 for -1 yards (52-R.Gary).
- (1:57) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to GB 49 for 9 yards (24-C.Valentine).
- (1:49) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 27-C.Akers to GB 43 for 6 yards (20-J.Bullard).
- (1:44) 14-S.Darnold kneels to GB 44 for -1 yards.
- (1:05) 14-S.Darnold kneels to GB 45 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 14-S.Darnold kneels to GB 46 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.76 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Curl route | -0.58 pts |
| Play action | -0.88 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.19 pts |
| End-around | -3.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.79 pts |
| Deep post | -5.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.