Falcons vs Saints — Week 4, 2024
The Falcons took over leading 23-17 with 3:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 26, Saints 24. Falcons won 26-24 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 7, 3:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 88.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:57) 25-T.Allgeier right guard to ATL 7 for no gain (52-D.Jackson, 23-M.Lattimore).
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 8-K.Pitts.
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier pushed ob at ATL 14 for 7 yards (5-W.Harris).
- (3:38) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 41, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at ATL 42 for 17 yards (44-T.Andersen). ATL-44-T.Andersen was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.25 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| QB keep | -1.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.93 pts |
| Play action | -3.24 pts |
| Curl route | -3.50 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.23 pts |
| Deep post | -8.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.