Packers vs Rams — Week 5, 2024
The Packers took over leading 24-19 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Rams 19. Packers won 24-19 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.5% for Packers. Our model starts at 86.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to GB 43 for 13 yards (0-B.Young, 3-K.Curl).
- (3:23) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Heath (91-K.Turner).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 43 for no gain (91-K.Turner, 0-B.Young).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks (24-D.Williams).
- (3:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 28 yards to LA 29, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-45-Er.Wilson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.70 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.16 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.66 pts |
| QB keep | -0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Play action | -2.10 pts |
| Curl route | -2.22 pts |
| End-around | -4.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.36 pts |
| Deep post | -7.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.