Commanders vs Giants — Week 9, 2024
The Commanders took over leading 27-22 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 27, Giants 22. Commanders won 27-22 — the drive time expired.
Commanders ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.8% for Commanders. Our model starts at 89.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 23-C.Rodriguez left tackle to WAS 31 for 1 yard (41-M.McFadden; 51-A.Ojulari). ** Injury Update: NYG-22-A.Phillips has returned to the game.
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 14-O.Zaccheaus to NYG 27 for 42 yards (31-T.Nubin).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 23-C.Rodriguez right tackle to NYG 23 for 4 yards (98-D.Davidson). PENALTY on NYG-98-D.Davidson, Face Mask, 12 yards, enforced at NYG 23.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 23-C.Rodriguez right tackle to NYG 6 for 5 yards (28-C.Flott).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 23-C.Rodriguez right guard to NYG 2 for 4 yards (98-D.Davidson).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 23-C.Rodriguez up the middle to NYG 1 for 1 yard (98-D.Davidson, 97-D.Lawrence).
- (1:37) 5-J.Daniels kneels to NYG 1 for no gain.
- (:57) 5-J.Daniels kneels to NYG 2 for -1 yards.
- (:25) 5-J.Daniels kneels to NYG 3 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| QB keep | -0.85 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -2.29 pts |
| Curl route | -2.48 pts |
| End-around | -4.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.62 pts |
| Deep post | -8.06 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.