Bills vs Cardinals — Week 1, 2024
The Bills took over leading 31-28 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at the Cardinals 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Bills 34, Cardinals 28. Bills won 34-28 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Cardinals territory, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.8% for Bills. Our model starts at 82.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle to ARI 33 for 9 yards (7-K.White, 23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
- (3:52) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle to ARI 21 for 7 yards (25-Z.Collins, 93-J.Jones).
- (3:08) 4-J.Cook left tackle to ARI 20 for 1 yard (2-Ma.Wilson, 34-J.Thompson).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left guard to ARI 21 for -1 yards (7-K.White).
- (2:00) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -1.60 pts |
| Curl route | -1.87 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.97 pts |
| End-around | -4.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.68 pts |
| Deep post | -6.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.49 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.