Saints vs Panthers — Week 9, 2024
The Saints took over leading 22-17 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 22, Panthers 23. Panthers won 23-22 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 26, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.0% for Saints. Our model starts at 83.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 20 for 7 yards (94-A.Robinson).
- (3:48) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 23 for 3 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left end pushed ob at NO 24 for 1 yard (26-C.Smith-Wade).
- (3:39) 43-M.Hayball punts 50 yards to CAR 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 36 for 10 yards (52-D.Jackson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.71 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.81 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| QB keep | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -1.78 pts |
| Curl route | -2.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.16 pts |
| End-around | -4.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.89 pts |
| Deep post | -6.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.