Broncos vs Bengals — Week 17, 2024
The Broncos took over tied at 24 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 24, Bengals 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 23, 2:43 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.5% for Broncos. Our model starts at 52.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 23-A.Estime right guard to DEN 26 for 3 yards (92-B.Hill; 58-J.Ossai).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 25 for -1 yards (28-J.Newton).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 82-A.Trautman.
- (2:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CIN 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-85-L.Krull.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.25 pts |
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| Play action | +0.90 pts |
| QB keep | +0.84 pts |
| Quick out | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.18 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.99 pts |
| Deep post | -1.09 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.