Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 14, 2024
The Chiefs took over trailing 17-16 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 19, Chargers 17. Chiefs won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 40, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.9% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 52.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 10-I.Pacheco (0-D.Henley).
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 10-I.Pacheco (24-M.Maye).
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-X.Worthy to LAC 46 for 14 yards (29-T.Still).
- (3:51) 10-I.Pacheco right end to LAC 44 for 2 yards (56-M.Fox). KC-70-D.Humphries was injured during the play.
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 34 for 10 yards (43-T.Dye).
- (3:20) 1-X.Worthy left end to LAC 29 for 5 yards (3-D.James).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to LAC 25 for 4 yards (22-E.Molden; 43-T.Dye).
- (2:32) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to LAC 23 for 2 yards (24-M.Maye).
- (2:29) 29-K.Hunt left guard to LAC 21 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to LAC 20 for 1 yard (95-P.Ford).
- (2:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 11 for 9 yards (29-T.Still).
- (1:11) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to LAC 12 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Curl route | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.18 pts |
| Play action | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.90 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.23 pts |
| Deep post | -2.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.