Titans vs Jets — Week 2, 2024
The Titans took over trailing 24-17 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Titans 17, Jets 24. Jets won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 14.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at TEN 36 for 6 yards (26-B.Echols).
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 20-T.Pollard to TEN 39 for 3 yards (56-Qi.Williams).
- (4:06) (No Huddle) 8-W.Levis up the middle to TEN 41 for 2 yards (95-Q.Williams).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley.
- (3:25) 20-T.Pollard left end to TEN 45 for 4 yards (91-B.McGregor).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at NYJ 39 for 16 yards.
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to NYJ 29 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark, 94-S.Thomas).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to NYJ 23 for 6 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis scrambles up the middle to NYJ 10 for 13 yards (1-A.Gardner).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis scrambles left tackle to NYJ 8 for 2 yards (26-B.Echols).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins.
- (:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at NYJ 14 for -6 yards (99-W.McDonald).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.60 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Deep post | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Spike it | -1.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.