Jets vs Vikings — Week 5, 2024
The Jets took over trailing 23-17 with 3:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Jets 17, Vikings 23. Vikings won 23-17 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 3:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Jets. Our model starts at 15.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 10-A.Lazard (1-S.Griffin).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 46 for 16 yards (24-C.Bynum).
- (2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 10-A.Lazard to MIN 47 for 7 yards (24-C.Bynum).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 10-A.Lazard to MIN 41 for 6 yards (24-C.Bynum).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 5-G.Wilson.
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to MIN 32 for 9 yards (2-S.Gilmore).
- (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-B.Hall right guard to MIN 26 for 6 yards (58-J.Greenard).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin (52-Ji.Ward).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson [58-J.Greenard].
- (:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 2-S.Gilmore at MIN 9. 2-S.Gilmore to MIN 9 for no gain (18-M.Williams).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.19 pts |
| Deep post | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.80 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.20 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Spike it | -1.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.