Dolphins vs Colts — Week 7, 2024
The Dolphins took over trailing 16-10 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 10, Colts 16. Colts won 16-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Dolphins ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 1:51 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 10.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to MIA 38 for 8 yards (23-K.Moore; 44-Z.Franklin).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass short right to 9-J.Smith to MIA 48 for 10 yards (41-G.Stuard).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete short left to 17-J.Waddle (40-J.Jones).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass short left to 83-M.Washington pushed ob at IND 45 for 7 yards (40-J.Jones).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle scrambles left end to IND 41 for 4 yards (41-G.Stuard).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass short left to 28-D.Achane to IND 32 for 9 yards (41-G.Stuard, 40-J.Jones).
- (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass short left to 28-D.Achane to IND 33 for -1 yards (40-J.Jones, 23-K.Moore).
- (:12) (No Huddle) 14-T.Boyle spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:11) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Washington.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.18 pts |
| Curl route | +1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.81 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| Play action | +0.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.40 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -1.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.