Cardinals vs Rams — Week 17, 2024
The Cardinals took over trailing 13-9 with 2:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 9, Rams 13. Rams won 13-9 — the drive turnover.
Cardinals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 36, 2:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 25.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (3-K.Curl).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 22-M.Carter to ARI 42 for 6 yards (24-D.Williams; 3-K.Curl).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at LA 41 for 17 yards (26-K.Kinchens).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison pushed ob at LA 33 for 8 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter up the middle to LA 20 for 13 yards (39-J.McCollough; 3-K.Curl). LA-26-K.Kinchens was injured during the play.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at LA 13 for 7 yards (3-K.Curl).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter right tackle to LA 11 for 2 yards (0-B.Young; 56-C.Rozeboom).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Carter left guard to LA 5 for 6 yards (39-J.McCollough).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 4-A.Witherspoon at LA 1. 4-A.Witherspoon to LA 1 for no gain (17-Z.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.00 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.44 pts |
| QB keep | +1.28 pts |
| Deep post | +1.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.99 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.35 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Spike it | -2.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.