Rams vs Packers — Week 5, 2024
The Rams took over trailing 24-19 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 19, Packers 24. Packers won 24-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Rams ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 29, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 18.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 86-C.Parkinson to LA 38 for 9 yards (21-E.Stokes; 58-I.McDuffie).
- (2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 88-J.Whittington.
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 45 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 88-J.Whittington (33-E.Williams).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Atwell [97-K.Clark].
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 86-C.Parkinson to GB 46 for 9 yards (33-E.Williams).
- (1:57) 23-K.Williams up the middle to GB 43 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams; 21-E.Stokes).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington (21-E.Stokes). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 88-J.Whittington to GB 38 for 5 yards (21-E.Stokes). LA-88-J.Whittington was injured during the play.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at GB 45 for -7 yards (sack split by 91-P.Smith and 94-K.Brooks).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 86-C.Parkinson pushed ob at GB 38 for 7 yards (21-E.Stokes).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 86-C.Parkinson [56-E.Cooper].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| Deep post | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.64 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Spike it | -1.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.