Panthers vs Saints — Week 9, 2024

What really happened

Final: Panthers 23, Saints 22. Panthers won 23-22 — the drive scored.

Panthers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 36, 3:26 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.4% for Panthers. Our model starts at 22.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Coker.
2. (3:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 0-J.Sanders.
3. (3:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 17-X.Legette to NO 38 for 26 yards (27-S.Jean-Charles; 31-J.Howden).
4. (2:24) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-B.Young is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.