Steelers vs Colts — Week 4, 2024
The Steelers took over trailing 27-24 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 1 timeout in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 24, Colts 27. Colts won 27-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Steelers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 17, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.4% for Steelers. Our model starts at 26.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields right tackle to PIT 29 for 12 yards (20-N.Cross).
- (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 11-V.Jefferson to PIT 38 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle to PIT 42 for 4 yards (45-E.Speed).
- (1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 36, and recovers at PIT 30. 2-J.Fields to PIT 30 for no gain (45-E.Speed).
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 14-G.Pickens (40-J.Jones).
- (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 22-N.Harris to PIT 41 for 11 yards (45-E.Speed).
- (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 11-V.Jefferson [95-A.Adebawore].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| Deep post | +0.23 pts |
| Play action | +0.13 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.01 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Outside run | -1.09 pts |
| Inside run | -1.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.95 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.