Browns vs Raiders — Week 4, 2024
The Browns took over trailing 20-16 with 3:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Browns 16, Raiders 20. Raiders won 20-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 31, 3:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.1% for Browns. Our model starts at 27.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Cooper (69-A.Butler).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 45 for 14 yards (18-J.Jones).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CLE 49 for 4 yards (0-J.Bennett; 69-A.Butler).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford left guard to LV 16 for 35 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 21, and recovers at LV 22.
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Akins (49-C.Snowden).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper to LV 9 for 13 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao) [69-A.Butler].
- (:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.20 pts |
| QB keep | +1.06 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Deep post | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.