Rams vs Cardinals — Week 17, 2024
The Rams took over leading 13-9 with 3:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Rams 13, Cardinals 9. Rams won 13-9 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 11, 3:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.2% for Rams. Our model starts at 83.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 17 for 6 yards (91-L.Collier).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right tackle to LA 17 for no gain (3-B.Baker; 25-Z.Collins).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-P.Nacua.
- (2:09) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to ARI 36, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.89 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.77 pts |
| Inside run | -0.92 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Quick out | -1.59 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| QB keep | -1.79 pts |
| Play action | -2.70 pts |
| Curl route | -2.77 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| End-around | -5.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.53 pts |
| Deep post | -7.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.