Colts vs Titans — Week 6, 2024
The Colts took over leading 20-17 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 20, Titans 17. Colts won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 37, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 77.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon left tackle to IND 40 for 3 yards (53-E.Jones; 69-S.Joseph).
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Pierce.
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.Pierce.
- (3:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | +0.07 pts |
| QB keep | -0.31 pts |
| Quick out | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Curl route | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -1.64 pts |
| End-around | -3.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.60 pts |
| Deep post | -6.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.