49ers vs Buccaneers — Week 10, 2024
The 49ers took over leading 20-17 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 23, Buccaneers 20. 49ers won 23-20 — the drive missed field goal.
49ers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 39, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.1% for 49ers. Our model starts at 77.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel pushed ob at TB 29 for 32 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (4:48) 23-C.McCaffrey right end to TB 27 for 2 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 90-L.Hall).
- (4:03) 13-B.Purdy sacked at TB 30 for -3 yards (94-C.Kancey). FUMBLES (94-C.Kancey) [94-C.Kancey], recovered by SF-15-J.Jennings at TB 26.
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (31-A.Winfield).
- (3:13) 4-J.Moody 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | -0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB keep | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Curl route | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -3.40 pts |
| End-around | -3.86 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.05 pts |
| Deep post | -8.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.