Bengals vs Giants — Week 6, 2024
The Bengals took over leading 10-7 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 17, Giants 7. Bengals won 17-7 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 36, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.5% for Bengals. Our model starts at 82.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) 30-C.Brown left tackle to CIN 34 for -2 yards (22-A.Phillips, 0-B.Burns).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 34 for no gain (0-B.Burns).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 80-A.Iosivas ran ob at NYG 37 for 29 yards.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left end to NYG 30 for 7 yards (41-M.McFadden). FUMBLES (41-M.McFadden), touched at NYG 21, ball out of bounds at NYG 17.
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| QB keep | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.36 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Curl route | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -1.60 pts |
| End-around | -3.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.72 pts |
| Deep post | -6.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.