Chargers vs Broncos — Week 16, 2024
The Chargers took over leading 27-24 with 4:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 34, Broncos 27. Chargers won 34-27 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Backed up at their own 10, 4:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 73.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) 4-G.Edwards right end to LAC 10 for no gain (55-C.Barton; 98-J.Franklin-Myers).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston.
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 26 for 16 yards (29-J.McMillian).
- (3:35) 4-G.Edwards up the middle to DEN 31 for 43 yards (40-J.Strnad).
- (2:42) 4-G.Edwards right end to DEN 34 for -3 yards (52-J.Elliss, 22-B.Jones).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-H.Haskins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.74 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.74 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.97 pts |
| Outside run | -1.01 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.62 pts |
| Quick out | -1.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.03 pts |
| Curl route | -2.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.54 pts |
| End-around | -4.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.17 pts |
| Deep post | -6.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.