Browns vs Jaguars — Week 2, 2024
The Browns took over leading 18-13 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at the Jaguars 42, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Browns 18, Jaguars 13. Browns won 18-13 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Jaguars territory, 1:44 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.4% for Browns. Our model starts at 94.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman up the middle to JAX 39 for 3 yards (44-T.Walker; 23-F.Oluokun).
- (1:40) 70-Z.Zinter and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman up the middle to JAX 38 for 1 yard (44-T.Walker).
- (1:37) 70-Z.Zinter and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 19-C.Tillman (41-J.Hines-Allen) [41-J.Hines-Allen].
- (1:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.66 pts |
| Curl route | -3.09 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.08 pts |
| Deep post | -8.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.