Giants vs Seahawks — Week 5, 2024
The Giants took over leading 23-20 with 2:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Giants 29, Seahawks 20. Giants won 29-20 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 22, 2:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.2% for Giants. Our model starts at 80.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:05) 29-T.Tracy left guard to NYG 26 for 4 yards (17-J.Baker; 55-D.Jones).
- (2:00) 29-T.Tracy left guard to NYG 28 for 2 yards (22-T.Brown).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Slayton (28-N.Pritchett) [90-Ja.Reed].
- (1:51) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-D.Williams to SEA 34 for 7 yards (59-C.Kreiter).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.11 pts |
| Quick out | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Curl route | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Play action | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.71 pts |
| End-around | -3.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.39 pts |
| Deep post | -6.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.