49ers vs Seahawks — Week 11, 2024
The 49ers took over leading 17-13 with 3:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20. Seahawks won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 37, 3:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.6% for 49ers. Our model starts at 83.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) 76-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to SF 48 for 11 yards (48-T.Knight).
- (3:10) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to SF 49 for 1 yard (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-97-J.Hankins, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 49.
- (3:06) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SEA 47 for -1 yards (8-C.Bryant).
- (3:02) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings to SEA 42 for 5 yards (8-C.Bryant).
- (2:45) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.74 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.74 pts |
| Outside run | +0.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.03 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| QB keep | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.90 pts |
| Curl route | -1.94 pts |
| End-around | -4.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.06 pts |
| Deep post | -7.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.