Texans vs Colts — Week 1, 2024
The Texans took over leading 29-27 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 29, Colts 27. Texans won 29-27 — the drive time expired.
Texans ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 30, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.0% for Texans. Our model starts at 75.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) 28-J.Mixon left end to HOU 30 for no gain (94-T.Lewis).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right end to HOU 34 for 4 yards (99-D.Buckner, 90-G.Stewart).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins ran ob at HOU 41 for 12 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:56) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to HOU 45 for 4 yards (94-T.Lewis).
- (1:52) 28-J.Mixon left end to HOU 48 for 3 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (1:48) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to IND 43 for 9 yards (20-N.Cross).
- (1:01) 7-C.Stroud kneels to IND 44 for -1 yards.
- (:31) 7-C.Stroud kneels to IND 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.06 pts |
| QB keep | +0.05 pts |
| Outside run | +0.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Play action | -0.51 pts |
| Curl route | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.36 pts |
| End-around | -3.42 pts |
| Deep post | -4.83 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.