49ers vs Dolphins — Week 16, 2024
The 49ers took over trailing 22-17 with 2:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Dolphins 29. Dolphins won 29-17 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 2:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 18.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 15-J.Jennings to SF 47 for 17 yards (36-S.Duck).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou pushed ob at SF 46 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou to MIA 38 for no gain (15-J.Jennings).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.61 pts |
| Deep post | +1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.18 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Play action | +0.76 pts |
| Quick out | +0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -1.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.