49ers vs Cardinals — Week 5, 2024
The 49ers took over trailing 24-23 with 1:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 23, Cardinals 24. Cardinals won 24-23 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 27, 1:32 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 46.1% for 49ers. Our model starts at 45.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 42 for 15 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White [34-J.Thompson] at 50. 7-K.White to 50 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.10 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.10 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.84 pts |
| QB keep | +1.71 pts |
| Play action | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.82 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Deep post | -0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.