Jets vs Dolphins — Week 14, 2024
The Jets took over tied at 23 with 4:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Jets 26, Dolphins 26. Tied 26-26 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 13, 4:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 45.5% for Jets. Our model starts at 50.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:25) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 32-I.Davis (20-J.Brooks). NYJ-17-D.Adams was injured during the play.
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 0-B.Allen to NYJ 28 for 15 yards (6-A.Walker).
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 31 for 3 yards (5-J.Ramsey). ** Injury Update: NYJ-17-D.Adams has returned to the game.
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 6 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 0-B.Allen. 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 39 for 2 yards (95-B.Jones).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams to MIA 45 for 16 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (2:00) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 10-A.Lazard to MIA 27 for 18 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right end to MIA 32 for -5 yards (95-B.Jones).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at MIA 38 for -6 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at MIA 24 for 14 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (:56) 18-A.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.64 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.84 pts |
| Curl route | -1.10 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.21 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| Outside run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -1.59 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.81 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.16 pts |
| Deep post | -3.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.