Jaguars vs Dolphins — Week 1, 2024
The Jaguars took over tied at 17 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 17, Dolphins 20. Dolphins won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 30, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 48.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 57.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to JAX 30 for no gain (11-D.Long).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 26 for -4 yards (91-E.Ogbah).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 20 for -6 yards (15-J.Phillips).
- (2:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to MIA 40, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 35 for -5 yards (51-V.Miller).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.48 pts |
| Curl route | +0.16 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Play action | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.62 pts |
| Spike it | -2.90 pts |
| Deep post | -3.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.