Bills vs Patriots — Week 16, 2024
The Bills took over leading 24-21 with 1:11 left, 1st & 10 at the Patriots 48, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Bills 24, Patriots 21. Bills won 24-21 — the drive time expired.
Bills ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.7% for Bills. Our model starts at 90.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:11) 26-Ty.Johnson left end to NE 36 for 12 yards (48-J.Tavai).
- (1:04) 26-Ty.Johnson left tackle to NE 31 for 5 yards (16-S.Takitaki; 48-J.Tavai).
- (:59) 26-Ty.Johnson left end to NE 27 for 4 yards (92-D.Godchaux; 98-J.Pharms).
- (:54) 26-Ty.Johnson left end to NE 27 for no gain (92-D.Godchaux).
- (:10) 17-J.Allen left guard to NE 25 for 2 yards (48-J.Tavai; 33-A.Jennings).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick out | -0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.70 pts |
| QB keep | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Play action | -2.17 pts |
| Curl route | -2.31 pts |
| End-around | -4.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.50 pts |
| Deep post | -7.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.