49ers vs Seahawks — Week 6, 2024
The 49ers took over leading 29-24 with 1:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 1 timeout in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 36, Seahawks 24. 49ers won 36-24 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 19, 1:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.6% for 49ers. Our model starts at 90.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:39) 31-I.Guerendo right tackle to SEA 5 for 76 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
- (1:24) 31-I.Guerendo right guard to SEA 6 for -1 yards (97-J.Hankins).
- (1:20) 44-K.Juszczyk right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.81 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.93 pts |
| QB keep | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.08 pts |
| Curl route | -2.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.54 pts |
| End-around | -4.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.37 pts |
| Deep post | -7.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.