Chiefs vs Texans — Week 16, 2024
The Chiefs took over leading 27-19 with 3:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Texans 19. Chiefs won 27-19 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 39, 3:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.3% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 95.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:41) 10-I.Pacheco left guard to KC 41 for 2 yards (51-W.Anderson).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown to KC 45 for 4 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o; 24-D.Stingley).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 34-S.Perine to HOU 39 for 16 yards (21-C.Bullock).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to HOU 33 for 6 yards (43-N.Hewitt).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to HOU 13 for 20 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
- (1:13) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to HOU 14 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to HOU 15 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| Quick out | -1.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.19 pts |
| QB keep | -1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.93 pts |
| Curl route | -3.31 pts |
| End-around | -5.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.37 pts |
| Deep post | -9.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.