Buccaneers vs Raiders — Week 14, 2024
The Buccaneers took over leading 21-13 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 28, Raiders 13. Buccaneers won 28-13 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.9% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 95.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) 1-R.White up the middle to TB 23 for 3 yards (96-J.Laulu).
- (3:01) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton to LV 33 for 44 yards (41-R.Spillane).
- (2:12) 1-R.White right guard to LV 30 for 3 yards (96-J.Laulu).
- (2:07) 1-R.White left tackle to LV 29 for 1 yard (7-T.Moehrig).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-J.McMillan for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.74 pts |
| Quick out | -1.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.49 pts |
| QB keep | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.26 pts |
| End-around | -5.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.24 pts |
| Deep post | -8.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.