Rams vs Bills — Week 14, 2024
The Rams took over leading 44-42 with 0:59 left, 1st & 10 at the Bills 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Rams 44, Bills 42. Rams won 44-42 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. Near midfield, 0:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 87.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:59) 23-K.Williams up the middle to BUF 43 for 2 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
- (:56) 23-K.Williams right guard to BUF 41 for 2 yards (46-J.Ingram).
- (:52) 23-K.Williams left tackle to BUF 37 for 4 yards (46-J.Ingram; 9-T.Rapp).
- (:07) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB keep | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -1.78 pts |
| Curl route | -1.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.26 pts |
| End-around | -4.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.02 pts |
| Deep post | -7.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.