Seahawks vs Broncos — Week 1, 2024
The Seahawks took over leading 26-20 with 2:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 26, Broncos 20. Seahawks won 26-20 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 2:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.5% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 93.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to SEA 30 for no gain (93-D.Jones).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right end to SEA 29 for -1 yards (5-B.Browning, 93-D.Jones).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 43 for 9 yards (21-R.Moss) [0-J.Cooper].
- (1:40) 7-G.Smith kneels to SEA 41 for -2 yards.
- (:59) 7-G.Smith kneels to SEA 40 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 7-G.Smith kneels to SEA 39 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.99 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Play action | -2.54 pts |
| Curl route | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -5.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.94 pts |
| Deep post | -8.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.